In this paper we consider the conditions of second-order exchangeability and second-order partially exchangeability together with some applications.The first application concerns a general linear state-space model in which the noise process is assumed to be second-order partially exchangeable. Other applications of the second-order exchangeability condition regard statistical procedures in which imprecise prior probability assessments are employed.

This study considers Newman’s sermon—“On the Nature of the Future Promise”—which he preached on 4 September 1825 at St. Clement’s Church, Oxford—likely with his mother and sisters present in the congregation; in addition to treating Newman’s style of preaching and Evangelical theology, this sermon’s theological and pastoral dimensions are also examined.

This study considers Newman’s sermon—“On the Nature of the Future Promise”—which he preached on 4 September 1825 at St. Clement’s Church, Oxford—likely with his mother and sisters present in the congregation; in addition to treating Newman’s style of preaching and Evangelical theology, this sermon’s theological and pastoral dimensions are also examined.

Sovereignty and non-interference principles are trademarks of the Association of South-East Asian Nations regional approach. Starting from 1993, ASEAN has been developing a process aimed at creating a human rights system. This process reached its acme in August 2013 when the ASEAN Human Rights Declaration was formally launched. In the frame of the tension between sovereignty and human rights, the paper firstly analyzes the roots of the ASEAN path towards the creation of the regional human rights system grounded on the (...) Vienna World Conference debate. Next comes an analysis of the political commitments assumed by ASEAN in the last 20 years in the process of creating a human rights body in the region. Furthermore, the paper presents an in-depth analysis of the most problematic issues connected with the nature, functions, mandate, and purposes of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Human Rights Commission. This is followed by an analysis of the AHRD. (shrink)

Con la obra de Poliziano se refuerza la idea de la existencia de un topos que, por su valencia de significado es adoptado por toda una serie de artistas que de alguna manera expresan en él su propia adhesión a la idea platónica de naturaleza, de lugar metafísico, ideal y abstracto. El "jardín", modelo instrumental y racionalizado, muestra el gusto de finales del siglo XV, que impregna todos los ámbitos de la creatividad, hasta el punto de que la Naturaleza termina (...) siendo una creación de la mente humana. El autor describe en este trabajo cómo el horizonte estético y filosófico trazado por Poliziano en sus Stanze, cuyos valores y gustos recrea, puede tomarse como clave para sondear la extrema complejidad del siglo XV. © Centro de Investigaciones sobre Vico. Cuadernos sobre Vico - Todos los derechos reservados. (shrink)

Summary The treatment of the consonant ‘T’ in the names Tharsus and Thartarus and some temporal clauses shows that the Historia Apollonii regis Tyri was written by a Phoenician native speaker. Comparisons with both coins and laws issued under Caracalla suggest that this work has been written at Tarsus under this emperor. The author’s major aim was that of maintaining that both the Tyche of the city and its new founder were Tyrians. He wanted to argue against the contemporary ambition (...) of his fellow citizens to be Greek. (shrink)

The author examines the intriguing link between magic and Gnosticism.

Dans beaucoup de textes magiques , on retrouve des triangles, des carrés et des cercles créés par des mots magiques arrangés selon ces for­mes. Une série de gemmes et de papyri avait recours à des héros de la mythologie grecque pour la guérison de certaines maladies. On s’adressait à Tantale, Lycurgue ou Persée pour contrôler des organes du corps humain, et les formules qui les nommaient étaient écrites en forme de triangles. On a l’habitude d’expliquer ces formations triangulaires de mots (...) comme une soustraction progressive de lettres qui faisait décroître la maladie et les autres maux. Cette explication est valable dans certains cas, mais non dans d’autres. Souvent des triangles du même type ajoutent chaque partie du mot au mot lui-même, comme dans le cas de noms de divinités, dont la force était multipliée par cette opération graphique. La Tetraktys pythagoricienne est le cas le plus ancien de ce type d’additions. Les formations carrées de mots multipliaient un mot par lui-même et représentaient d’autres formes d’exaltation d’un nom divin ou d’une formule magique. Ces spéculations se fondaient sur la pensée mathématique et géométrique des pythagoriciens. Les mots magiques palindromiques étaient souvent écrits sous forme circulaire, laquelle pouvait entourer et contrôler le nom d’une personne ou des symboles du mal.Geometric formations of words in the ancient magic arts. In many magical texts triangles, squares and circles often occur, which are created by magical words arranged in these forms. A series of gems and papyri look to the heroes of Greek mythology for the treatment of specific diseases. In fact, it is known that spells invoking Tantalos, Lycourgos or Perseus were created in order to control the organs of the human body and that triangular word formations were used to write these spells. The usual explanation of triangular word formations maintains that the progressive elimination of letters compels sickness and other evil to diminish. This is true, but this explanation cannot be applied to every triangle or wing formation. Similar triangles often add each part of the word to the others, as in the case of divine names, whose force is magnified by such a graphic operation. The pythagoric Tetraktys is the most ancient example of such sums. The square formations multiplied one word by itself and represented other ways of extolling a divine name or the might of a magical spell. These speculations were based on the mathematics and geometry of the Pythagoric tradition. Palindromic magical words were often written in circular formations, which could cluster round and control the name of a person or symbols of something evil. (shrink)

BackgroundThe therapeutic effect of deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) for Parkinson's disease (PD) is related to the modulation of pathological neural activities, particularly the synchronization in the β band (13–35 Hz). However, whether the local β activity in the STN region can directly predict the stimulation outcome remains unclear.ObjectiveWe tested the hypothesis that low-β (13–20 Hz) and/or high-β (20–35 Hz) band activities recorded from the STN region can predict DBS efficacy.MethodsLocal field potentials (LFPs) were recorded in (...) 26 patients undergoing deep brain stimulation surgery in the subthalamic nucleus area. Recordings were made after the implantation of the DBS electrode prior to its connection to a stimulator. The maximum normalized powers in the theta (4–7 Hz), alpha (7–13 Hz), low-β (13–20 Hz), high-β (20–35 Hz), and low-γ (40–55 Hz) subbands in the postoperatively recorded LFP were correlated with the stimulation-induced improvement in contralateral tremor or bradykinesia–rigidity. The distance between the contact selected for stimulation and the contact with the maximum subband power was correlated with the stimulation efficacy. Following the identification of the potential predictors by the significant correlations, a multiple regression analysis was performed to evaluate their effect on the outcome.ResultsThe maximum high-β power was positively correlated with bradykinesia–rigidity improvement (rs = 0.549, p < 0.0001). The distance to the contact with maximum high-β power was negatively correlated with bradykinesia–rigidity improvement (rs = −0.452, p < 0.001). No significant correlation was observed with low-β power. The maximum high-β power and the distance to the contact with maximum high-β power were both significant predictors for bradykinesia–rigidity improvement in the multiple regression analysis, explaining 37.4% of the variance altogether. Tremor improvement was not significantly correlated with any frequency.ConclusionHigh-β oscillations, but not low-β oscillations, recorded from the STN region with the DBS lead can inform stimulation-induced improvement in contralateral bradykinesia–rigidity in patients with PD. High-β oscillations can help refine electrode targeting and inform contact selection for DBS therapy. (shrink)

Inhaltsübersicht: Dankwort, Vorwort, In jedem Augenblick kann ich entscheiden, wer ich bin. Was im Kopf eines anderen vorgeht, können wir nie wissen. Das Erkennen des Erkennens verpflichtet. Wahr ist, was funktioniert. Wir selbst sind Konstrukte. Wir beginnen nie am Anfang. Die Freiheit, das Neue zu wagen. Wir können von der Wirklichkeit nur wissen, was sie nicht ist. Ausgewählte Literaturhinweise. Register. Über den Autor.

Here the author of How to Solve It explains how to become a "good guesser." Marked by G. Polya's simple, energetic prose and use of clever examples from a wide range of human activities, this two-volume work explores techniques of guessing, inductive reasoning, and reasoning by analogy, and the role they play in the most rigorous of deductive disciplines.

Philosophical naturalism faces a dilemma: take it as an ideology, and you face charges of internal incoherence, since the ideological stance itself does not look to be a deliverance of science. Forgo the ideological aspect, on the other hand, and naturalism becomes a merely subjective assessment, a cry of “yay for science!” that carries no normative weight for those who are not inclined to agree. I first argue that both horns of this dilemma are sharp, and that current attempts to (...) negotiate them have failed. I then give a plausible construal of methodological naturalism that is both ideological and internally coherent, and so threads this dilemma. Finally, I consider objections to this formulation of naturalism. (shrink)

2014 Reprint of 1954 American Edition. Full facsimile of the original edition, not reproduced with Optical Recognition Software. This two volume classic comprises two titles: "Patterns of Plausible Inference" and "Induction and Analogy in Mathematics." This is a guide to the practical art of plausible reasoning, particularly in mathematics, but also in every field of human activity. Using mathematics as the example par excellence, Polya shows how even the most rigorous deductive discipline is heavily dependent on techniques of guessing, inductive (...) reasoning, and reasoning by analogy. In solving a problem, the answer must be guessed at before a proof can be given, and guesses are usually made from a knowledge of facts, experience, and hunches. The truly creative mathematician must be a good guesser first and a good prover afterward; many important theorems have been guessed but no proved until much later. In the same way, solutions to problems can be guessed, and a god guesser is much more likely to find a correct solution. This work might have been called "How to Become a Good Guesser."-From the Dust Jacket. (shrink)